博客首页  |  [維權詩集]首页 

維權詩集
博客分类  >  其它
維權詩集  >  编者公告
华尔街日报就《维权诗集》顾问胡佳怎么会获诺贝尔奖专访滕内森

3852

    滕内森---国际和平研究协会主席,在近日接受的采访中预言中国的胡佳将获得本次诺贝尔和平奖。滕内森先生并不是诺贝尔委员会的成员,但他和其他和平组织成员一样,可以向诺贝尔委员会进行提名。每年他都会发表谁会最终获奖的预测,即使这个人有可能并不是他自己提名的或并不是呼声最高的提名者。

    我们联系了滕内森先生,想了解为什么他会最看好胡佳,以及诺贝尔委员会是通过怎样的程序作出最终选择的。

    华尔街日报(以下称华):为什么您最看好胡佳?

    滕内森(以下称滕):今年的和平奖可能会倾向于把奖项颁给一位跟人权有关的提名者。因为从2003年起就没有一个和平奖的获奖者是完全因为人权而得奖,而今年正好是国际人权宣言发表60周年。

    所以我想寻找一位或是人权运动的积极分子,或是人权受到迫害的人。而我把中国的持不同政见者放在第一位,是出于两个原因:一是至今为止唯一一位获得诺贝尔和平奖的中国人是达赖喇嘛,但他并不住在中国。诺贝尔委员会一直在寻找合适的中国提名者。这些年我曾推测89年天安门广场示威者的母亲会获奖,但没有。然后又有一位harry Hu(不好意思,不知道是谁),但一直没有一位很显著的人能得到提名。

    在过去的几年里,我没有预测一位中国的持不同政见者会得奖,是因为我觉得诺贝尔委员会会比较谨慎,避免在中国奥运前去打扰中国。当中国的国民情绪完全寄托在奥运这件大事上的同时得奖,可能这个奖会被曲解。
    而现在中国的奥运已经开好了,而且开得很成功,那么中国应该能够承受得起这样的批评了。

    华:和平奖曾经颁给过正在狱中的人吗?

    滕:1935年Carl von Ossietzky 获得和平奖,被纳粹逮捕,并引发了对希特勒的暴力反抗事件,当时希特勒禁止任何德国人接受和平奖。然后1991年Aung San Suu Kyi在狱中获奖。

    华:颁奖给胡佳会激怒中国政府,诺贝尔委员会愿意这么做吗?

    滕:委员会是由挪威国会选择的人员组成,他们是退位的政治家,或是边缘化的政治家,他们的运作是完全独立于政府的,国会对他们的决定不能进行干涉。

    诺贝尔委员会有时是大胆的,有时不是。决定把和平奖颁给Carl Von Ossietzky的那届委员会是十分有勇气的,而害怕英国的反对而不把奖项颁给甘地的那届委员会则是懦弱的。

    目前这届委员会已经受到了很多批评,批评他们把奖颁给了相对而言并不是直接跟和平有关的人员,不过他们虽然把和平奖的内容放宽到了很多领域,但并没有一个奖项的颁发引起世界上的反对。

    华:胡佳的所做作为是否有足够的理由得到这个奖?

    滕:胡佳还很年轻,他只是涉及到一些反日的示威,这是他的不足之处。但另一方面,在中国的大背景下我还没有找到一个具有象他那样的品德的突出人物。有一些人被政府流放了,所以不太能选择。 

    在我们协会中也有一些不同意见,我的一些同事认为诺贝尔委员会只有在一个独裁国家朝着更独裁方向发展时才会可能把和平奖颁给这个国家的持不同政见者。而中国在人权方面有进步,虽然在奥运期有退步,但也可能只是因为奥运这件大事让中国觉得紧张的缘故。他们认为委员会可能会把奖颁给一个越来越压迫人民的国家,比如说俄国,作为对这种行为的反对并引起世界的注意。

    华:您提名的人有多少机率能获奖?

    滕:2000年我猜对了金大中,2001年我猜对了安南,2002年我没有猜对卡特,2003年和2004年没有进行预测。2005年我猜对了国际原子能机构和Mohamed ElBaradei ,所以说我有一半的猜对的。2006年Muhammad Yunus 获奖让我很惊讶,尽管他是我提名的。而去年的国际气候变化协会和Al Gore得到了广泛关注,这点我也猜对了。 
    
    
    How to Win a Nobel Prize:
    
    An Interview With Stein Tønnesson
    
    
    Stein Tønnesson, the director of the International Peace Research Institute in Oslo, made waves earlier this week when he predicted jailed Chinese dissident Hu Jia might win this year’s Nobel Peace Prize. He’s not affiliated with the Nobel organization, though like officials at other peace groups he offers nominations to the Nobel committee. Each year he publishes his best guess on who might win, though that person isn’t necessarily the same as his own nominee or favorite candidate.
    
    We caught up with Tønnesson to learn about why Hu tops his list, and how to game the decision-making process of the secretive Nobel committee.
    
    
    
    WSJ: Why did Hu Jia top your list?
    
    
    Tønnesson: It is probably a year when one would want to give a prize to someone who is related to a human rights issue. Since 2003, there has not been a clear human rights prize, and this year we are having the 60th anniversary of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights.
    
    So I started looking for people who are either human rights activists or are persecuted. When I put the Chinese dissident on top, it was for two reasons. One, the only Chinese who has ever received the Nobel Peace Prize is the Dalai Lama, who does not even reside in China. The committee must surely have tried to look for good Chinese candidates. For many years, I speculated that the mothers of the Tiananmen Square protesters would win, but they did not. Then there was Harry Wu. But there hasn’t been any obvious candidate.
    
    In the past few years, I have not predicted a Chinese dissident would win because the Nobel Committee would probably be reticent about disturbing China before the Olympics. If a Chinese was given the prize just at a time when the nation’s sentiments were geared towards this big national moment, it would probably be badly perceived.
    
    But now China has had the Olympics and it was a great success. Now China would be able to afford and meet such criticism.
    
    WSJ: Has the Prize ever gone to somebody currently in prison?
    
    Tønnesson: Carl von Ossietzky in 1935 had been imprisoned in Nazi Germany, which lead to violent outbursts from Hitler. He issued a prohibition against any German receiving the Nobel Peace Prize.
    
    Then in 1991 Aung San Suu Kyi won after she had been arrested.
    
    WSJ: Choosing Hu Jia would certainly anger the Chinese government. Would the Nobel committee want to do that?
    
    Tønnesson: The committee is constituted of the people selected by the Norwegian parliament. They are veteran politicians, or people a little bit on the margins of the political party that they represent. They operate completely independently of the government, and the parliament does not interfere with the discussions.
    
    Some committees are bold and some are not. The committee that gave the prize to Carl von Ossietzky was very courageous. The committee that refrained from giving the prize to Mahatma Gandhi was motivated by some concerns about British reaction. That was a cowardly committee.
    
    The present committee has been criticized for having awarded the prize to relatively uncontroversial persons who often work on issues that are not directly related to peace. They have widened the prize to include many areas, but have not really given a prize that caused a lot of protest around the world.
    
    WSJ: Has Hu Jia done work that touches on or improves enough lives to warrant a Peace Prize?
    
    Tønnesson: He is very young. He has also been involved in some anti-Japanese demonstrations. That would be a drawback.
    
    But on the other hand, I haven’t really seen other candidates that are outstanding in a Chinese context that have the same kind of moral quality that he has. Many have fallen into exile, which makes them less eligible…
    
    We had some debate at our Institute. Some of my colleagues say the committee will probably want to issue the prize to a dissident in an authoritarian regime only if that regime is moving in the authoritarian direction. China has been in a way improving, though perhaps there was some setback during the Olympics, which maybe was only nervousness with this big event… My colleagues say the committee would be more likely to award the Prize to a country that is becoming more and more repressive, such as Russia, as a kind of protest against this and a way of drawing the world’s attention to these negative developments.
    
    WSJ: What has been the success rate of your predictions?
    
    Tønnesson: I was right in predicting Kim Dae Jung in 2000. Then I was right about the UN and Kofi Annan in 2001. By that time I had stopped predicting Jimmy Carter, so was surprised in 2002. I never even had the idea for 2003 and 2004. I had the International Atomic Energy Agency and Mohamed ElBaradei up high on my list in 2005, so I was at least half right. I was completely surprised when Muhammad Yunus got the prize in 2006, despite the fact that I had nominated Yunus myself on behalf of someone else. I was right on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and Al Gore which got so much attention last year.
    
    –Geoffrey A. Fowler

来源:博讯
 

给本文章评分:
    留言:
留言簿(游客的留言需要审核后发表。请遵守基本道德。) >>
游客
   01/19/09 10:28:02 PM
我们常说,生命权高于一切.人权之中,生命权是最重要的权利.而中国有一位人权护卫者陈晓兰医生,在十年打假中因为打掉了七种假医疗器械,阻止了无数的假治疗,使十数亿人的生命及其家底得以保护.人权奖应属于这位女中豪杰. 山东维权人,李继峰.